May 10, 2010 - Syria Today - Thicker than Water

By Sarah Birke

Damascus has witnessed few stranger sights in recent years than that of Lebanese leader Walid Jumblatt sitting next to President Bashar al-Assad. Jumblatt’s initial visit to the Syrian capital – followed by a second trip on April 16 – shows just how far relations between Damascus and Beirut have come since Syrian troops pulled out of Lebanon in 2005 following the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Jumblatt is just one of several politicians who have made their way to Damascus in recent months. After forming a national unity government in Lebanon, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri visited Damascus in December last year and was due back in the capital for more detailed talks as Syria Today went to print. This, despite the fact that he has spent countless hours in recent years blaming Syria for the assassination of his father, an allegation Damascus has always denied.

Shifting regional alliances

Warming Syrian-Lebanese relations stem from a shifting of regional alliances which has seen Syria emerge from five years of international isolation, say political analysts. Under former US President George W. Bush, Lebanon and other US-allied countries were wooed away from Syria in an attempt to isolate it. That project failed and with the US and major Arab powers such as Saudi Arabia once again reaching out to Damascus, Syrian-Lebanese rapprochement was only a matter of time.

“Washington’s defeat in reshaping the Middle East according to its desires also meant a defeat for Saudi Arabia and its local Lebanese clients,” Murhaf Jouejati, professor of Middle East Studies at George Washington University, said. “Since almost everything is a zero sum game in the Middle East, that defeat meant a victory for the Iran-Syria alliance and their local Lebanese allies.”

Initial signals of the defeat came with the bloodying of Israel’s nose by Hezbollah during the 2006 Israeli war on Lebanon. The failure of Israel’s strikes on Gaza in late 2008 and early 2009 to secure the release of one of its soldiers held by Hamas – a stated goal of the attacks – was seen as an additional loss for Tel Aviv.

“Syria’s enemies thought a defeat of Hezbollah would bring down the Syrian regime and its mini-axis,” Rime Allaf, a Syrian political analyst at London’s Chatham House, said. “It didn’t happen.”

This led to a recent period of rapprochement between Syria and Saudi Arabia, the traditional patron of Hariri’s Future Movement, which – on the surface – has calmed internal power struggles in Lebanon and diluted anti-Syrian sentiment within the March 14 coalition.

The new dynamics have also given Damascus greater leverage when it comes to the balance of power with Israel. In the absence of a comprehensive peace settlement, preventing Lebanon from falling prey to Israeli machinations is a constant theme in Syrian foreign policy.

“Lebanon is strategic to Syria, to hold it away from the Israeli line of fire and to get its support for the resistance,” Khalid Aboud, a Syrian MP and secretary of the Syrian parliament, said. “It is natural for us to have a good relationship. But the murder of Hariri was used by the US to tear apart relations between Beirut and Damascus.”

No choice

Analysts say that Lebanon had no other choice than to come back to Syria.

“It was Lebanon, not Syria, that was really isolated by the international community,” Allaf said. “Lebanon has not received the US patronage it was promised and its other neighbour is Israel. There was never any other option for the Lebanese but to talk to Syria.”

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies and associate professor at the University of Oklahoma, agrees.

“Many Lebanese hate both sides, Syria and the US, but they don’t have the luxury of doing without one,” he said. “They are being forced to choose sides. Hariri and his allies chose the US in 2005 believing that Syria had killed their leader. We are now seeing a great shift as Hariri separates from the right-wing and goes back to a traditional alliance with Syria and Hezbollah.”

If Syrian-Lebanese relations are returning to their former status, the issue of equality is being mooted. Syria has long been portrayed as playing with an innocent Lebanon which is unable to stand up for itself. Despite the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon and the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, accusations of Syrian control over the country via indirect means abound.

Aboud says Syria’s relations with Lebanon have always been conducted according to international law.

However, he suggested the relationship would now proceed in a more equal manner.

“In the past, some Syrians who benefited in Lebanon became like a mafia looking out for their own interests, with cooperation from some in Lebanon,” he said.

“There will be no more of these old-fashioned relationships which benefited from the shadows and the dark. The relationship will not be good if it is not equal.”

Lebanon also benefits from Syria, just in a different manner, Jouejati points out.

“The benefits for each are not comparable,” he said. “Syria benefits strategically, while Lebanon benefits economically. Syria is one of Lebanon’s most important markets and Lebanon is separated from its Gulf market by Syria.”

Junior partner

Others predict the relationship will be lopsided. Despite Lebanese national elections and greater stability in the wake of a recent period of Syrian-Saudi rapprochement, Lebanon remains a weak state rife with sectarian divisions.

“There is no glue in Lebanon so it is always subject to foreign meddling,” Landis said, adding that as long as the Arab-Israeli conflict remained unresolved, Damascus would have a strategic interest in ensuring Hezbollah remained armed, powerful and a challenge to Israel.

Putting pressure on Israel and having another alliance in the resistance is “the number one priority”, according to Aboud. “We are telling the Lebanese that this is our demand. We want them to speak out loudly for the resistance.”

So far this demand has met with success, with Jumblatt urging resistance and refusing to condemn Hezbollah’s arms.

There are challenges to ongoing smooth relations, such as resistance in Lebanon from Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and Phalange Party head Amin Gemayel, as well as the ongoing investigation into the killing of Hariri.

But neither is seen as a real threat to the rapprochement. Officials on both sides are showing a willingness to turn the page despite unfinished business. The UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon also seems to be going nowhere fast.

“Both US and Lebanese politicians have engaged with Syria and put political chips on the country,” Landis said. “If they thought there was a jack-in-the-box waiting to come out, they wouldn’t be doing that.”