February 28, 2009 - Regional entente could impact Tribunal's verdict

Court could serve as a toll with which to 'squeeze syrians in evolving negotiations'

By Michael Bluhm

Analysis
BEIRUT: Holland's The Hague will witness the launch of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon on Sunday, but the ultimate impact of the tribunal depends mostly on the outcome of the growing entente between Syria and the US and US allies in the Middle East, a number of analysts told The Daily Star on Friday.
Syria endured years of international isolation after many here and abroad blamed it for the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, but Damascus has since last summer been much in demand among its Arab brethren, France and the United States. Jeffrey Feltman, acting US assistant secretary of state for the Middle East, met with Syria's Ambassador to the US Imad Mustafa on Thursday, while Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem visited Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
Rumors have long swirled that the tribunal would function as a bargaining chip in the standoff between the US and its allies here on the one hand and the camp of Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizbullah on the other. While the analysts said the tribunal would not simply fade away or never conduct a trial, they also acknowledged that political considerations could limit the tribunal's scope.
"The rapprochement with Syria is key to determining the final verdict," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, who wrote the 2002 book "Hizbullah: Politics and Religion" and teaches political science at Lebanese American University. "Syria is key to any regional stability, from Lebanon to Iraq."
Arab states and the US are trying to decouple Syria from Iran, with Arab countries perhaps willing to negotiate about the tribunal if Syria will help keep Iraq from falling entirely under Tehran's sway, said retired General Elias Hanna, who teaches political science at Notre Dame University
"This is embarrassing for the Arabs, if Iraq is under Iranian patronage," he said.
The US also wants to pry Syria away from Iran, but these efforts put new President Barack Obama in the delicate situation of engaging Syria while not abandoning the commitments the US made to Lebanon in the wake of Hariri's killing, Hanna added. Former US President George W. Bush extended strong verbal and material backing to Lebanon's March 14 political alliance, which remains wary that the US might trade on the tribunal to gain other concessions from Damascus, Saad-Ghorayeb said.
The diplomatic courtship between the US and Syria has only begun, leaving it far too early to draw any conclusions about whether any decoupling from Iran or influence on the tribunal will occur, the analysts said. The intentions of Syrian President Bashar Assad also remain typically inscrutable, and should his recent openness turn out to be a ruse, a deal on the tribunal will certainly not come to pass, said Saad-Ghorayeb.
"It's too soon to bet that Syria will be persuaded to leave the resistance front and join the moderate Arab states," she said.
Hanna said he discounted any conspiracy theories that the US, France and their allies had long planned to defang the tribunal in exchange for Syria divorcing its regional partners. Not only do Syria's ties to Iran run deep, but the UN Security Council, the US and the Netherlands would not have gotten so involved in setting up and paying tens of millions of dollars for the tribunal only to abandon it, he said.
"Nobody can control [the tribunal], because it's too complex to be controlled," Hanna said, adding that the March 1 inauguration of the tribunal's headquarters signified at least that investigators must have made some progress in the case. "You wouldn't go and build such a complex organization only for fun." However, he said that the tribunal would serve as a handy tool to squeeze the Syrians in the evolving negotiations. "Maybe the Americans or the Saudis will use this tribunal from time to time as a hammer against the Syrians," Hanna said.
Saad-Ghorayeb, meanwhile, said Sunday's christening did not represent a landmark in the case, with four years having elapsed since Hariri's assassination and no indictment filed - and with more years almost certain to elapse before any trial begins.
"It took four years for the tribunal to open its doors," she said. "I don't think it signals any kind of strategic milestone.
"The tribunal is going to take several years to come up with a verdict, anyway. It also allows time for the US and other political actors to shape the outcome," she added.
Hilal Khashan, head of the department of political studies and public administration at the American University of Beirut, said the tribunal would surely be emasculated by political considerations. Damascus recognizes how badly its rivals want it to switch sides and so Syria will wring every last advantage out of such a deal - including neutering the tribunal, Khashan said.
"The Saudis have been desperately trying to get the Syrians on their side," he said. "I'm sure the Syrians will not accept to be part of rapprochement unless they get what they want." For example, Thursday's announcement that Hamas had agreed to form a unity government demonstrated Syria's willingness to cooperate with the West - because of Syria's influence over Hamas - and Assad would not be so compliant without quid pro quo, Khashan added. "I see headway, and the Syrians are not doing that for free."
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon would probably become part of the tribute to be paid to Damascus, he said.
"The tribunal will be scaled down and limited mostly to Lebanese officials," Khashan said. "Should the case of those indicted go beyond the borders, it will affect a few Syrian security officers.
"I really believe that the list of those indicted, when it is released, will not be consequential. I don't think the tribunal will ever put on display or order the arrest of key Lebanese politicians," he added.
Regardless of outcome, the tribunal will have a range of effects in Lebanon - it has, for instance, become yet another campaign issue in the pivotal June 7 general elections, Hanna said. March 14 politicians have tried to lure voters by saying only a vote for their parties will ensure the continuity of the tribunal, Saad-Ghorayeb said.
On the bright side, the formal establishment of the tribunal in Holland at least reduces by one the number of issues separating the March 14 and March 8 camps, which had frequently sparred over the court, Saad-Ghorayeb added.
"Now that it's up and running, it at least removes one obstacle for some kind of agreement between the two sides," she said. "It's a very positive development that this took place before the elections. It's good that it's out of the way."
Many potential pitfalls still await Lebanon because of the tribunal, the analysts said. Some citizens will likely take umbrage at which Lebanese judges were chosen or passed over for the tribunal, Saad-Ghorayeb said. Once the tribunal begins indicting suspects and calling witnesses, the pressure will rise dramatically on various individuals and groups implicated, with the possibility that a verdict viewed as unjust could spark violence, the analysts said.
In the "worst-case scenario," Syria might react by unleashing turmoil in Lebanon if the tribunal puts the Assad regime in a vise, Hanna said.
"If the Syrians feel that it's going to be used against them, and there's no way out ... from a logical point of view they're going to do something in Lebanon," he said.
A verdict convicting Leban-ese in the crime might also spur many here to demand that similar tribunals bring to justice those involved in political crimes outside the mandate of the tribunal, such as the atrocities committed during the 1975-90 Civil War, Saad-Ghorayeb said.
"Even if the real culprits are brought are brought to justice, it's a double-edged sword of sorts," she said. "The UN is setting a very dangerous precedent for itself in determining which crimes to investigate. This is not going to promote reconciliation in Lebanon at all."
UN and tribunal officials have long said they hoped the tribunal would bring about an end to impunity for those responsible for the decades of politically motivated violence here, but as long as the wobbly Lebanese state continues to be weaker than various militias and foreign security agencies operating here, the culture of impunity is unlikely to end, Khashan said.
"None of the attacks within Lebanon in the past 60 years have been solved," he said. "I don't see any reason why Hariri's assassination would end up any differently."