February 18, 2009 - Daily Star - Hariri tribunal will have no impact on June 7 elections, analysts say

By Nicholas Kimbrell
BEIRUT: The Special Tribunal to try suspects in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri will have little if any effect on Lebanon's parliamentary elections and future US-Syrian relations, political and legal analysts told The Daily Star on Tuesday. The tribunal is slated to begin on March 1, just months before Lebanon's parliamentary elections and in the wake of new diplomatic overtures between Washington and Damascus. But despite the proximity of these events, analysts suggested they would remain relatively distinct.
"All of these things are happening at the same time but they aren't necessarily connected," said Paul Salem, the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center. "The tribunal is on its own timetable and dynamic ... it's autonomous."
US-Syrian relations also operate within their own dynamic, he added.
Despite considerable divisions, US-Syrian ties seem to be entering a new phase. Less than two weeks after US President Barack Obama took office a US congressional delegation, led by Representative Adam Smith, sat down with Syrian President Bashir Assad in Damascus.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman and former presidential candidate John Kerry is set to meet with the head of state during his regional tour this week. And there are reports that House Foreign Relations chairman Howard Berman could make the trip before the month's end.
This potential thaw in US-Syrian ties comes despite the fact that Syrian officials and allies could be indicted for Hariri's assassination. Syria has been widely accused of having a hand it the massive blast that killed Hariri in 2005. And last Friday UN investigators traveled to Syria, just one day before the fourth anniversary of Hariri's murder. Damascus denies any involvement in the killing.
Like Salem, American University of Beirut professor and international law expert Chafiq Masri believes the tribunal and developments in US-Syrian talks will proceed along different tracks.
"There is a kind of difference between the tribunal as an institution which will go on with its performance and US Syrian relations," he told The Daily Star.
"The court court is final," he said, whereas "US-Syrian relations may be completed but only with the coming of the American ambassador - these are only preliminary steps."
The US has been one of the tribunal's most vocal proponents, a sentiment unchanged despite the transfer of power in Washington. Both Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have firmly expressed their support for the court.
"The tribunal will proceed on its own ... Syria has adjusted to the fact that the tribunal is going to happen," Salem said, adding that US moves to engage Syria and the upcoming tribunal were not "interconnected."
Both Salem and Masri also doubted that the tribunal would affect Lebanon's parliamentary polls in any significant way.
Lebanon's ruling March 14 coalition was formed after the assassination, which triggered massive popular demonstrations that forced Syria to withdraw from Lebanon after three decades of political custodianship.
The March 14th coalition, led by a collection of politicians including Hariri's son, will try to maintain its majority status this June in Lebanon's parliamentary polls.
Masri said that "March 14 will always utilize and capitalize on [the assassination]," but he noted that the trial's proceedings will end long after the polls.
"The general prosecutor will submit his report to the pretrial judge who will issue arrest warrants before the trial and this will come about after, not before, the elections," he said.
Salem offered a similar analysis. "Nothing major will come out of [the tribunal] this year," he said. The elections are set for June 7.